Conclave Oscar Surge Eerily Coincides With Pope’s Illness

There's capturing the zeitgeist, and then there's Conclave: When the film debuted last fall to near-unanimous praise, its story of the selection of a new pope after the previous pontiff's sudden death felt like a metaphor. Now, with Pope Francis hospitalized in critical condition — just as Conclave vies for Oscars — the film feels eerily, sadly of our time.

The film by Edward Berger, based on the novel by Robert Harris, follows Cardinal Thomas Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes), as he leads a secret conclave to choose the next pope. There are twists and turns and revelations, as well as debate about which way the Catholic Church should go. It is as much about politics as faith.

The idea of choosing a new pope seemed distant when the film was released, but now is an agonizing thought for the faithful, and for fans of Pope Francis outside the church. The 88-year-old was taken to a hospital 11 days ago with bronchitis, which has developed into pneumonia. The New York Times reports that the Vatican was besieged Monday with false reports that he had died.

Conclave's Oscar Chances

Oscar voting ended a week ago, during the pope's health drama. At the same time billions around the world prayed for the pope to recover, Conclave surged.

The film was a clear Oscar contender from the time it debuted at the Telluride Film Festival on August 30. In a topsy-turvy Oscar race, Emilia Perez felt like the first clear frontrunner, until old tweets by star Karla Sofía Gascón hurt the film's odds. At one point The Brutalist felt like a strong contender, though its chances may have been hurt by admissions that the film made (limited) use of A.I.

Anora, which some discounted after it failed to win any Golden Globes, has been on a brilliant run, and is the odds-on favorite in many categories, including Best Picture. But as The Ankler noted Monday, Conclave's fortunes are rising. In a piece entitled "Conclave Quietly Maneuvers Into Position as a Potential Anora-Killer," writer Katey Rich explained that the pope drama is now "a genuine second-place threat."

Also Read: Conclave Producer Michael Jackman on the Art of Invisible Compromise

The strong Oscar indicators for Anora include winning the the Palme d’Or last May and winning three Independent Spirit Awards this past Saturday, including Best Feature, best director for Sean Baker, and Best Lead Performance for Mikey Madison.

But Conclave picked up momentum at the Screen Actors Guild Awards the next night, claiming the win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. It also did very well at the BAFTAs earlier this month, claiming Best Film and Best Screenplay (Adapted) for Peter Straughan.

Conclave is up for eight Oscars Sunday, compared to six for Anora. Anora still seems to have the edge in the Best Picture race, in part because Baker is nominated for Best Director while Berger is not.

But Conclave is a film about a race where a very surprising winner emerges, at the last minute, because of events that no one could have anticipated or controlled. And it may be hard for voters to deny its relevance at a time when its events veer in uncomfortable and sad parallel with the events of real life.

Oscar voters have always loved to feel like they're promoting the film of the moment. That may well be Anora, a story of class struggle, recognition and the compromises we all make that should resonate with anyone with a heart in 2025.

But Conclave's almost freakish breaking-news urgency may make it feel every bit as relevant.

Main image: Ralph Fiennes in Conclave. Focus Features.